EV power demand could rise to 264 TWh – the equivalent of Spain’s annual electricity use – over the next seven years, according to figures based on Montel calculations using IEA regional electricity demand data published in the World Energy Outlook 2022.

“The size of the EV fleet becomes an important factor for power systems,” said the IEA, adding that the boost in power demand would have “implications for peak power demand, transmission and distribution capacity”.

“Careful planning of electricity infrastructure, peak load management, and smart charging will be critical,” it added.

The projected increase was linked to market trends and policy efforts, including the EU Council’s adoption of a regulatory incentive mechanism for zero and low-emission vehicles (ZLEV) in place from 2025 to 2029.

In March, the Council adopted new CO2 emission reduction targets of 55% for new cars and vans from 2030 to 2034, and 100% from 2035.

Steady growth in Europe

The IEA expects European electric car sales to increase by over 25% in 2023, up from 2.7m sold in 2022.

Yet it said the roll-out in Europe would be slower than in the United States and China in 2023, due to tightening CO2 targets only taking effect in 2025.

Europe was the world’s second largest market for electric cars after China in 2022, accounting for 25% of all electric car sales and 30% of the global stock.

Chinese competition

The report noted that EV supply chains were increasingly at the forefront of EV-related policy making, with Europe remaining China’s largest trade partner for both electric cars and their batteries in 2022.

The Net Zero Industry Act, proposed by the EU in March 2023, aims for nearly 90% of the region’s annual battery demand to be met by EU battery manufacturers, with a manufacturing capacity of at least 550 GWh by 2030.

The global EV fleet consumed 110 TWh of power in 2022 – a quarter of which was for electric cars in China – and is projected to reach between 950 and 1,150 TWh in 2030, still less than 4% of final power demand.

The IEA projects that electric vehicles worldwide will displace 5m barrels of oil per day by 2030, equivalent to around 700m tonnes of CO2.